FiveThirtyEight has done an analysis about bias in the upcoming election, and it doesn’t look good for Democrats.
The bias is in Republicans’ favor, and it’s the Democrats’ own fault due to their concentrations in places like California and New York. From FiveThirtyEight:
In the last few decades, Democrats have expanded their advantages in California and New York — states with huge urban centers that combined to give Clinton a 6 million vote edge, more than twice her national margin. But those two states elect only 4 percent of the Senate. Meanwhile, Republicans have made huge advances in small rural states — think Arkansas, North and South Dakota, Iowa, Louisiana, Montana and West Virginia — that wield disproportionate power in the upper chamber compared to their populations.
We can quantify the partisan bias of Congress over time by measuring the distance between each national presidential result and each year’s presidential result in the median House and Senate seats. So, in 2008, for example, Barack Obama won the popular vote by 7.3 percentage points, but Democrats won the median House seat by 4.4 points — a pro-GOP bias of 2.9 points.
Today, the pro-GOP biases in both chambers are at historic highs:
FiveThirtyEight goes on to explain how much bias there is across the country as compared to previous years, and it could make a big difference in the election:
The GOP’s current 52-seat majority makes the Senate look tantalizingly competitive. But a look at the map reveals that the Democrats hold far more seats on borrowed time than Republicans do. The GOP doesn’t hold a single Senate seat in those 14 states that are more Democratic-leaning than the country overall. Meanwhile, Democrats hold six seats in the 26 more-Republican-than-average states, and all six are at risk in 2018.
Others have suggested that Democrats are in trouble in 2018 as well. A study conducted by the Pew Research Center reveals:
86 percent of Americans in the 50-64 demographic continuously identified themselves as Republican from December 2015 to March 2017. Only 72 percent of Democrats in the same demographic continuously remained tied to that party. According to the study, 10 percent of Democrats aged 50-64 stopped identifying as part of the Democratic Party at some point but returned, while 14 percent switched to the Republican Party and did not return. The results showed nearly identical results for Democrats and Republicans in the 30-49 demographic and the 65 and older demographic.
It doesn’t state it in here, but it would be interesting to see how many voters have switched from either party to “undeclared” or “independent” and have stayed there. It seems this group of voters continues to grow more and more with every election, and it’s much harder to figure out how independents will vote than the political party voters.
One of the biggest issues Democrats have is their lack of realization as to why they lost the 2016 presidential election and why they’ve lost state legislatures and governorships across the country.
The party has shifted to the far left and they’ve just gone with it. Not only do they alienate their own base, but they alienate a whole hell of a lot of Americans who want nothing to do with their crackpot craziness. You can’t keep voters with what they spew.
While voters were worried about jobs, the economy, and sending their kids to college, Democrats were pushing abortion, free birth control, transgender bathrooms, and Black Lives Matter. It doesn’t seem they have learned their lesson.