Earlier this week, we reported on an alarming Fox News poll that indicated Roy Moore, the Republican Senate candidate in Alabama’s special election, was suddenly neck and neck with Democrat candidate Doug Jones, despite Alabama’s red-state bona fides and Jones’ left-wing extremism. Today, however, we have a more plausible — and hopeful — poll on the race to share with you.
Fox 6 News in Birmingham reports that according to a Raycom News Network Senate Election poll of 3,000 likely voters conducted by Strategy Research finds that Moore, the former Chief Justice of the Alabama State Supreme Court who rose to national prominence by refusing to comply with decrees to remove the Ten Commandments from public property, enjoys an eleven-point lead over Jones, 51% to 40%, with another 9% undecided.
“The value of a poll depends on a range of circumstances. A number of recent polls have shown us with a strong lead, but at the end of the day, the one poll that matters above all others is taken on Election Day,” Moore campaign chairman Bill Armistead said. “The people of Alabama strongly supported President Trump in 2016 and Judge Moore is the conservative leader Alabama needs in Washington to support the president’s reform agenda.”
Jones put a happy face on the news by declaring that “polls will go up and down” and his campaign has “energy and momentum,” but Strategy Research’s Jonathan Gray doesn’t expect that to translate to victory. “Even if he were able to close the gap, how do you turn out Democrats in a state that hasn’t had a viable Democratic Party in almost a dozen years?”
At Conservative Review, Rob Eno explains that the tied poll, which was conducted by Fox News, should have been taken with a grain of salt all along:
A poll of “registered voters” in any election is close to meaningless, and it is doubly so in a special election.
The Alabama Senate special election is less than two months away, on December 12, 2017. Registered voter polls are rarely used that close to an election, even when it’s not a special election. The reason is that not all registered voters actually vote. In the last non-presidential-year general election, 2014, only 36.4 percent of eligible registered voters turned out to the polls. You can start to see why one must take a poll of all eligible voters with a grain of salt.
We’ve already had several 2017 special elections for federal office. In the Georgia 6th District election, 58 percent of voters turned out for the election. In South Carolina’s 5th District, fewer than 90,000 voters voted in the special election, significantly fewer than the 170,000 voters in 2014.
The fact is that only a small percentage of “registered voters” actually cast ballots in a special election.
This latest poll of likely voters, as opposed to registered ones, is also more consistent with previous polling that shows Moore with a solid lead over Jones.
All of this should come as great encouragement and relief for conservatives concerned with getting more votes in the Senate to outweigh the likes of John McCain and Susan Collins … and more importantly, at least one voice for the federal government’s elected branches to stop laying down for judicial tyranny.