It seems one election just ended, and yet there’s another one already gearing up – the 2018 midterms.
These elections will be extremely important for both parties, but especially for Democrats, who have several seats opening up in red states.
Background. With several seats opening up in red states and a Democrat Party in chaos, Democrats are going to have to work really, really hard to maintain their numbers in the Senate. From Real Clear Politics:
Every political junkie knows the Senate map is bad for Democrats. Over half of the Democratic caucus will be up for re-election, and some of these incumbents represent highly red states such as Montana, North Dakota, West Virginia, Indiana and Missouri. No party would want to go into a midterm defending a map like that.
But exactly how bad is it? Is it better or worse for the Democrats than recent maps (which have produced stalemates, historic losses, massive waves and everything in between)? And does this map completely obliterate Democratic chances to retake the upper chamber?
Map. Byler explains how he came up with the results in his map by using formulas which include presidential elections along with state legislative results as well. From RCP:
This graphic shows the partisan lean of each state with a Senate contest (special elections omitted) from 1986 to 2018. Each point is a Senate election (color indicates which party holds the seat), and the vertical location shows the partisan index of the state. The partisan index is simple: It’s the sum of two numbers — a measure of the presidential and state-level partisan leanings of each state.
The presidential component takes the statewide results from the last two presidential elections, subtracts them from the national popular vote, averages them and gives the most recent presidential election 75 percent of the total weight. The intuition here is that subtracting out the national popular vote will control for wave elections (e.g. President Obama barely won Indiana in 2008 but he won nationally by seven points, so the state should still be counted as deeply red) and that the most recent election is important but not the only relevant data. Note that this formula is borrowed from FiveThirtyEight’s Harry Enten.
Why this matters? It matters because Democrats seriously need to up their game in 2018. They’ve been losing ground across the entire country thanks to Barack Obama’s failure as a president, along with the move to extreme leftism by members of their party.
It doesn’t seem as though Democrats have yet grasped that a majority of Americans repudiate progressivism, but that’s at their own peril (frankly, we keep cheering them on to continue with their far-left behavior).
It will be interesting to watch the behavior of Senate Democrats in red states. As much as the left likes to excoriate Donald Trump and the Republican Party, that is mostly falling on deaf ears for voters who supported Trump.
All that said, unless the GOP gets it’s act together, all of this analysis goes out the window, and Republican voters may not flock to the polls to support do-nothing politicians.
What do you think? Will the GOP get it’s act together and get things done? Will 2018 be another bloodbath for Democrats?